On their first meeting, Sherlock Holmes impressed Dr. Watson by deducing that the doctor had just come home from the Second Afghan War. When asked to explain this feat, Holmes replied, "Elementary, my dear sir! You've returned in a body bag."
By any measure, the war in Afghanistan is lost, in the sense that victory is no longer possible and time favors the insurgents. The Taliban are resurgent, well supplied, in control of the countryside and operating from safe havens in Pakistan against a discredited, corrupt and weak puppet regime in Kabul, a teetering discredited government in Pakistan, and a hodgepodge of Western allied forces. Global terror networks have reformed and evolved and nothing we do in Afghanistan or Pakistan will result in their destruction or even weakening. Meanwhile the US is once again caught in its classic quagmire - it went in pursuing a vision, but has stayed to fight a local insurgency.
President Obama has unveiled his plan for "AfPak". The optimism of its presumptions is staggering, it's a plan based on a series of improbable events clicking together perfectly. As usual, the subsequent debate has been light on facts and heavy on baseless cavalier assumptions. After the flip, I try to present the facts and analyze the Obama plan.